Flash Report

Q4 2018 LCFS Data Released

May 1, 2019

Yesterday, the California Air Resources Board (CARB) released the Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS) fourth quarter 2018 LCFS Reporting Tool (LRT) data. A quick look indicates that for the fourth quarter of 2018, credits and deficits were 3.27 million metric tons (MT) and 3.20 million MT respectively, resulting in a surprising net positive credit balance of 70,000 MT for the quarter. This positive trend brings the total net credit bank balance up to 8.70 million MT at year-end and reverses the downward trend in the net credit bank of the past four quarters. Increased credits from renewable diesel and biodiesel were the prime reasons for the strong credit side results. The credit bank trend is shown in the figure below.

These fourth quarter results compare to third quarter 2018 credits and deficits of 2.80 million MT and 3.14 million MT, respectively. For the fourth quarter, credits increased by 17% and deficits increased by and 2% compared to the third quarter.

Our full quarterly analysis will be published on May 16th and will provide an in-depth analysis of the fourth quarter 2018 and full-year data.

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Credit Price Outlooks

Our LCFS Credit Price Outlook along with credit price outlooks for Oregon’s Clean Fuels Program (CFP), British Columbia’s LCFS (BC-LCFS), and U.S. Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) RINs provide unique, in-depth perspectives on the future of each credit market.