Stillwater's Carbon Market Outlooks
Stillwater’s Carbon Market Outlooks – Trusted, third-party outlooks on LCFS, CFP, BC-LCFS, and RFS credit prices as well as lipid feedstocks.
Stillwater’s Carbon Market Outlooks help fuels producers and investors navigate carbon market uncertainty and plan for the future
Our LCFS Credit Price Outlook along with credit price outlooks for Oregon’s Clean Fuels Program (CFP), British Columbia’s LCFS (BC-LCFS), U.S. Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) RINs, and Lipid Feedstocks Outlook provide unique, in-depth perspectives on the future of carbon markets and the availability of low carbon fuels.
Available Outlooks
LCFS Credit Price Outlook
Stillwater’s price projection for California’s LCFS program based on our analysis of the supply of low-CI fuels in California, the demand for fossil gasoline and diesel, our outlook on carbon intensities (CIs) of each fuel pool, and the evolution of the LCFS regulation. We offer base, high, and low price curves for LCFS credits through 2035 in addition to an accelerated carbon intensity reduction schedule credit price curve.
Oregon CFP Credit Price Outlook
A qualitative assessment of the CFP, taking into account the age and stage of the CFP as compared to California’s more mature LCFS program, and the history of LCFS and CFP credit prices. Stillwater will provide the base case, high, and low price curves for CFP credits.
BC-LCFS Credit Price Outlook
A qualitative assessment of the BC-LCFS which explains the differences between the BC-LCFS and California’s LCFS program and the value BC-LCFS credit prices will have to meet to compete with the California market.
RFS RINs Price Outlook
A report providing a quantitative analysis of the market conditions that drive RINs prices including an overview of the RFS program, historical credit volumes and pricing, and a 10-year RINs price outlook.
Lipid Feedstocks Outlook
A forward-looking view of lipid biomass feedstock supply for U.S. renewable fuel production through 2035. This analysis is a key factor in the model for Stillwater’s California LCFS Credit Price Outlook and is used to determine the viability of announced lipid-based renewable fuel production capacity.