Flash Report

Q1 2019 LCFS Data Released

Aug 1, 2019

Yesterday, CARB released the first quarter 2019 LRT data for the LCFS program. Today we offer a quick look at the data. Our comprehensive analysis will be published in Stillwater’s Quarterly LCFS Newsletter which is scheduled to be published on August 15th.

The headliner from the 1Q LRT data is that the program saw a 455,733 MT net deficit for the quarter. This compares to a 401,053 MT net deficit in the first quarter of 2018 and a 63,654 MT net credit in the fourth quarter of 2018. At the end of the first quarter, the cumulative credit bank stands at about 8.2 million MT.

The table below summarizes the first quarter and compares year-to-year and quarter-to-quarter data.

Of note in the above table is the large growth in on-road and off-road electricity credits which is much higher than the volume growth. The additional credits are due to the updated electricity CI in 2019. Also, renewable diesel continues its strong growth in credits and volume, and the displacement of fossil diesel is evident in the diesel volumes. On the deficit side, deficits took a jump in the first quarter with the LCFS reduction increasing from 5% in 2018 to 6.25% in 2019.  When compared to the fourth quarter of 2018, the first quarter of 2019 showed much greater growth in deficits than credits.

For more in-depth analysis of the latest quarterly LRT data, be sure to sign up for Stillwater’s LCFS Newsletter. In addition to quarterly reports, your subscription also includes weekly and monthly newsletters with valuable data, news, and analysis around the LCFS program. The first two weeks of your subscription are free, and our full quarterly report will be published within that introductory timeframe if you sign up now!

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Credit Price Outlooks

Our LCFS Credit Price Outlook along with credit price outlooks for Oregon’s Clean Fuels Program (CFP), British Columbia’s LCFS (BC-LCFS), and U.S. Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) RINs provide unique, in-depth perspectives on the future of each credit market.