Sample Weekly LCFS Newsletter

Welcome to Stillwater’s LCFS Weekly Newsletter (Sample Edition). This page offers a preview of the timely updates and actionable insights our subscribers rely on. The content below is drawn from a past edition to showcase the depth and clarity of our analysis.

Each week, Stillwater experts break down LCFS credit prices, trading activity, and regulatory developments, helping subscribers anticipate market shifts and identify emerging opportunities. With concise analysis, clear visuals, and practical takeaways, Stillwater delivers the intelligence you need to navigate the fast-changing low-carbon fuels landscape.

Subscribers also receive monthly and quarterly editions featuring expanded forecasts, trend analysis, and expert perspective, all delivered straight to your inbox.

*** Disclaimer: This sample includes content from a past edition and may not reflect current market conditions. ***

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LCFS Credit Price Trends

Bottom Line Up Front (BLUF): OPIS-reported closing credit price decreased by $1.00 (1.9%) this week.

Short-term trends: Figure 1 displays the weekly credit price trend for the week of September 17-23, and Table 1 offers a detailed comparison to the prior week and the same week last year.

Figure 1. Weekly Snapshot LCFS CreditData source: OPIS

  

Table 1. Weekly LCFS Credit Prices & Added Fuel CostsData source: OPIS

Longer-term trends: For 2025 year-to-date, LCFS credit prices have averaged $57/MT, reaching an annual high of $75.50/MT on January 6^th and a low of $40.75/MT on June 11^th. The annual average credit price for 2024 was $60/MT. The maximum allowable credit price for June 1, 2025 through May 31, 2026 is $268.90. Credit price trends for the past two years are displayed in Figure 2 below.

Figure 2. LCFS Credit Price TrendsData source: OPIS

Note: As of July 1, 2025, Stillwater is calculating the cost to CARBOB and diesel based on the newly implemented regulations (2024 Amendments).

Price Impacts of 2024 Amendments: The LCFS cost per gallon jumped by 4.8 cents for CARBOB and 6.9 cents for ULSD on July 1^st due to the implementation of the 2024 LCFS Amendments which included a 9.0% step-change in CI reduction schedule and a change to GREET 3.0. Although the amendments were not implemented or effective at the beginning of the year, refiners and importers had anticipated the implementation of these amendments and expected this cost to apply to the period starting January 1, 2025.

Credit Price Trends – Daily vs. Moving Averages

BLUF: Current credit prices continued to decline this week, remaining below the 30- and 180-day moving averages.

Figure 3, below, shows daily OPIS prices along with 30- and 180-calendar-day moving averages.[1] As can be seen, current credit prices dipped further below the declining 30-day moving average and the flat-lined 180-day moving average.

Figure 3. Current and Moving-Average LCFS Credit Price Trends

LCFS Trade Price Trends

BLUF: This week’s CARB-reported, volume-weighted average credit price decreased slightly while the range shrank.

The figure below shows the minimum, maximum, and volume-weighted average weekly price for the past twelve months. The range of prices illustrates that the transactions for some credits have been contracted in prior periods when credit prices were different, or the credits are discounted for commercial purposes.

Figure 4. Weekly LCFS Trade Price Trends
(Minimum, Maximum, and Weighted Average)Data source: CARB

 

LCFS Trading Volume Trends

BLUF: The total number of trades, total volume traded, and average volume per trade all decreased considerably this week.

Table 2 and Figure 5 below show a history of weekly volumes traded and number of deals executed for the past twelve months.

Table 2. Weekly LCFS Trades* Adjusted from last week’s reported volume of 756,373 MT and 53 trades.

Figure 5. LCFS Credit Trades
(Number of Trades and Total Volume)Data source: CARB

NEW: LCFS Futures Market Trends

BLUF: ICE LCFS futures contract prices are trading at a premium to the current spot price, and futures volumes were significantly higher than CARB-reported volumes traded this week.

As covered in our recent Monthly LCFS Newsletter, the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) recently launched a market for trading physical LCFS credits in addition to their prior financially-settled instruments. ICE offers LCFS Futures Contracts (“LFS-California”), which provide an important market signal for stakeholders by illustrating what participants anticipate regarding future movements in LCFS credit prices. As shown in Figure 6, the futures price curves are currently trading above current OPIS spot price levels with December 2026 contracts trading significantly higher than December 2025 contracts. These trends reflect market sentiment regarding upcoming regulatory changes, credit supply-demand balances, and seasonality. Trading in futures contracts remains an evolving aspect of the LCFS market, contributing to overall price discovery and risk management for obligated parties and market intermediaries.

Figure 6. ICE “LFS-California” Futures Contract Price TrendsData source: Intercontinental Exchange (ICE)

Figure 7 displays the trading volumes for ICE’s “LFS-California” futures contracts, providing insight into market activity and liquidity trends. Contract volumes help gauge the depth and development of the LCFS futures market, as well as participant engagement over time. Fluctuations in volume often correspond to shifts in regulatory expectations, credit price volatility, and broader market trends. Elevated trading volumes can indicate heightened uncertainty or increased hedging activity in anticipation of regulatory amendments or market transitions, while lower volumes may signal reduced market participant engagement. Futures contract activity serves as a useful barometer for assessing the robustness and transparency of LCFS credit pricing mechanisms.

Figure 7. ICE “LFS-California” Futures Contract VolumesData source: Intercontinental Exchange (ICE)

News for the Week of September 17-23

California LCFS News

• On September 17th, POLITICO outlined the imminent end to California’s moratorium on carbon dioxide pipelines, pending new safety regulations. Legislation is on Governor Newsom’s desk that would authorize the state fire marshal to issue rules for the “safe transportation” of CO₂ by pipeline. This move is crucial for California’s climate targets and will have important implications for the state’s LCFS, given the centrality of carbon capture and sequestration to California’s emissions strategy.
• On September 18^th, CARB announced an October 14th, 2025, workshop on introducing E15 gasoline in California. The session will examine scientific, regulatory, and economic implications. While California gasoline currently remains capped at E10 (until Governor Newsom signs recent legislation enabling the use of E15), the potential shift to 15% ethanol would affect California’s LCFS compliance landscape and supply chain economics.
• On September 22^nd, POLITICO reported on Governor Newsom naming his “climate whisperer” Lauren Sanchez to lead CARB at a critical moment. Sanchez will oversee major climate initiatives (including the LCFS) and new rules amidst industry and political pressures, as California continues to position itself as a national climate leader despite headwinds from the federal government.
• On September 23^rd, CARB announced that they will hold a public hearing on November 20, 2025, to consider amendments to several programs including the LCFS. The proposed adjustments to the LCFS would allow the use of indirect accounting of renewable natural gas (RNG) for reporting and crediting of electricity used for vehicle charging when produced by linear generators. This change aims to increase the near-term availability of low-carbon electricity for electric truck refueling while charging station operators work with utilities to connect to the electric grid. The proposed approach is designed to create more opportunities for low-emission electrification solutions in transportation during the transition to broader utility access. The public can submit comments until November 10, 2025, as part of this rulemaking process.
• On September 23^rd, the Weekly Credit Transfer Report for September 15-21 was posted on CARB’s website.

Oregon CFP News

• On September 22^nd, OPB reported that the Oregon DEQ has formally opposed the EPA’s proposal to rescind the 2009 Endangerment Finding, which provides the scientific and legal foundation for GHG regulation, and underpins Oregon’s CFP and other carbon policies. The letter argues that revocation would undermine Clean Fuels and Climate Protection programs in Oregon and threaten similar standards nationwide. For more information, see DEQ’s September 22^nd press release here.

Canadian CFR News

• On September 22^nd, Advanced Biofuels Canada (ABFC) released the tenth annual Navius Research Biofuels in Canada report, the national report on Canada’s renewable and low-carbon fuel markets. According to ABFC, the report highlights milestones in Canadian biofuels amid a challenging year, emphasizing the positive impact of the federal Clean Fuel Regulations (CFR) and provincial policies, especially in BC. Ethanol and diesel mandates have driven record GHG reductions, with Canadian and BC LCFS frameworks key to ongoing progress, even as U.S. policy continues to exert cross-border influence.

New Mexico CTFP News

• On September 22^nd, the Santa Fe New Mexican reported that the state’s Environmental Improvement Board (EIB) began its public hearing to consider the proposed adoption of the New Mexico Clean Transportation Fuel Program. The hearing will continue through October 3, 2025 and resume on November 17, 2025 if more time is required. More information concerning the hearing and how to attend can be found on the New Mexico Environment Department (NMED) calendar under the calendar entry corresponding to the hearing start date. Following the completion of these hearings and production of a hearing report and transcripts, the Board will convene to deliberate on the adoption of the proposed regulations. NMED is aiming to have the regulations take effect as early as February 1, 2026. The law requires the EIB to enact regulations to initiate the CTFP no later than July 1, 2026.

Tracking LCF Legislation

• Massachusetts: S2251 targets an 80% CI reduction by 2050. The bill is currently under consideration in the Joint Committee on Telecommunications, Utilities and Energy.
• New Jersey – SB2425 was introduced in January 2024 and referred to the Senate Environment and Energy Committee. The legislation targets a 10% CI reduction below a 2019 baseline by 2030. The bill has seen no action since it was introduced last year. The current session of the New Jersey legislature adjourns on December 31, 2025.
• Pennsylvania – Discussions concerning a low-carbon fuel program are underway amongst some of the key stakeholders in Pennsylvania. To date, no bills have been introduced in the legislature, but on September 18, 2025 Rep. Paul Takac (D-District 82) and Rep. Natalie Mihalek (R-District 40) filed a bipartisan co-sponsorship memo in the state House, signaling the “pending introduction” of a bill to establish a Clean Fuel Standard (CFS) in the state.
• All other state legislatures which previously had LCF programs under consideration have adjourned for the year.

Situational Awareness

• On September 19th, The Associated Press reported on Governor Newsom’s extension of California’s Cap-and-Trade program through 2045, renaming it “Cap-and-Invest.” The law aims to drive carbon neutrality, expand funding for climate and equity projects, and reinforce the regulatory foundation for the LCFS and Cap-and-Trade markets. The Seattle Times covered the extension and called the move an alignment of California’s carbon market with Washington’s Cap and Invest. The extension through 2045 provides long-term policy certainty for industry, supports ongoing efforts to link the markets, and injects stability into carbon pricing on the West Coast. The move increases the likelihood of a combined carbon market that may ultimately include Oregon and British Columbia as well.
• On September 22nd, Ethanol Producer Magazine reported on a U.S. House committee advancing the PIPES Act of 2025, which would set safety standards for CO₂ These new rules have immediate relevance for California’s and other West Coast states’ low-carbon fuel programs, especially as carbon capture and transportation expand as compliance strategies.
• On September 23^rd, Argus reported that the EPA may not finalize new biofuel blend mandates until winter 2025-2026, potentially delaying efforts to reshape the RFS and increase domestic biofuel production. This prolonged timeline has created uncertainty for biofuel producers and farmers, with industry groups concerned that postponed quotas could negatively impact profitability, crop demand, and future fuel prices.
• On September 24th, Business Standard reported LanzaTech’s progress in converting agricultural and industrial waste into ethanol and SAF, with export ambitions and implications for global clean fuels programs, including the U.S. RFS and Canada’s CFR. While focused on India, the technologies and partnerships described are relevant to North American LCFS and clean fuel standards, as they underpin emerging supply chains for low-carbon fuels.

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