LCFS Credit Price Trends

Bottom Line Up Front (BLUF): LCFS credit prices fluctuated this week but trended at parity with the prior week – the OPIS-reported closing credit price increased by just $0.37 (0.7%) week-to-week while weekly average credit prices dipped by $0.20 (0.4%).

Short-term trends: Figure 1 displays the weekly credit price trend for the week of October 8-14, and Table 1 offers a detailed comparison to the prior week and the same week last year.

Figure 1. Weekly Snapshot LCFS Credit Data source: OPIS

Table 1. Weekly LCFS Credit Prices & Added Fuel CostsData source: OPIS

Longer-term trends: For 2025 year-to-date, LCFS credit prices have averaged $57/MT, reaching an annual high of $75.50/MT on January 6^th and a low of $40.75/MT on June 11^th. The annual average credit price for 2024 was $60/MT. The maximum allowable credit price for June 1, 2025 through May 31, 2026 is $268.90. Credit price trends for the past two years are displayed in Figure 2 below.

Figure 2. LCFS Credit Price TrendsData source: OPIS

Note: As of July 1, 2025, Stillwater is calculating the cost to CARBOB and diesel based on the newly implemented regulations (2024 Amendments). 

Price Impacts of 2024 Amendments: The LCFS cost per gallon jumped by 4.8 cents for CARBOB and 6.9 cents for ULSD on July 1^st due to the implementation of the 2024 LCFS Amendments which included a 9.0% step-change in CI reduction schedule and a change to GREET 4.0. Although the amendments were not implemented or effective at the beginning of the year, refiners and importers had anticipated the implementation of these amendments and expected this cost to apply to the period starting January 1, 2025.

Credit Price Trends – Daily vs. Moving Averages

BLUF: Current credit prices remained closely clustered with the 30- and 180-day moving averages this week.

Figure 3, below, shows daily OPIS prices along with 30- and 180-calendar-day moving averages.[1] As can be seen, current credit prices rose slightly this week to remain above but closely clustered with the stabilized 30-day and 180-day moving averages.

Figure 3. Current and Moving-Average LCFS Credit Price Trends

LCFS Trade Price Trends

BLUF: This week’s CARB-reported, volume-weighted average credit price increased slightly while the range expanded.

The figure below shows the minimum, maximum, and volume-weighted average weekly price for the past twelve months. The range of prices illustrates that the transactions for some credits have been contracted in prior periods when credit prices were different, or the credits are discounted for commercial purposes.

Figure 4. Weekly LCFS Trade Price Trends
(Minimum, Maximum, and Weighted Average)Data source: CARB

LCFS Trading Volume Trends

BLUF: The total number of trades and total volume traded declined while the average volume per trade increased slightly this week.

Table 2 and Figure 5 below show a history of weekly volumes traded and number of deals executed for the past twelve months.

Table 2. Weekly LCFS Trades* Adjusted from last week’s reported volume of 3,356,461 MT and 139 trades.

Figure 5. LCFS Credit Trades
(Number of Trades and Total Volume)Data source: CARB

LCFS Futures Market Trends

BLUF: ICE LCFS futures contract prices declined throughout the week but continue to trade at a premium relative to the current spot price.

The Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) offers a market for trading physical LCFS credits in addition to their prior financially settled instruments. The LCFS Futures Contracts (“LFS-California”) provide an important market signal for stakeholders by illustrating what participants anticipate regarding future movements in LCFS credit prices. Figure 6 displays current (spot) pricing – labeled “OPIS daily average” – as well as futures pricing for Dec. 2025 and Dec. 2026 contracts based on data at the start and end of the week. As shown, futures contracts traded above current price levels this week with December 2026 contracts trading significantly higher than December 2025 contracts. Trading in futures contracts remains an evolving aspect of the LCFS market, contributing to overall price discovery and a risk management product for obligated parties and market intermediaries.

Figure 6. ICE “LFS-California” Futures Contract Price TrendsData source: Intercontinental Exchange (ICE)

Figure 7 displays the trading volumes for ICE’s “LFS-California” futures contracts, providing insight into market activity and liquidity trends. As can be seen, the daily trading volume was significantly higher on October 8^th compared to the rest of the week.

Figure 7. ICE “LFS-California” Futures Contract Volumes & Open InterestData source: Intercontinental Exchange (ICE)

News for the Week of October 8-14

California LCFS News

• On October 8^th, POLITICO drew attention to a research brief projecting that the LCFS could provide up to $16 billion for truck charging infrastructure, reinforcing the program’s pivotal role in decarbonizing heavy-duty transport.
• On October 9th, Biodiesel Magazine explored trends in sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) financing and offtake contracts. The article details the interplay between policy incentives like the U.S. Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS), the Inflation Reduction Act (45Z Clean Fuels Production Credit), and California’s LCFS, all of which are essential drivers for scaling SAF production and market viability.
• On October 13^th, CARB posted a list of Carbon Capture, Utilization, and Storage (CCUS) projects (PDF download) as part of implementation of Senate Bill 905. CARB expects these technologies to play an important role in reducing greenhouse gas emissions to help the state achieve carbon neutrality by 2045. This nationwide list provides information about projects that may provide valuable insight into how the technology is being developed and deployed. Importantly, none of the projects on the list have received CARB certification or generated LCFS credits.
• On October 14^th, the Weekly Credit Transfer Report for October 6-12 was posted on CARB’s website.

Oregon CFP News

• On October 8th, GBC Ghana reported that Oregon State University’s Clean Fuel Initiative is making significant progress in converting forestry waste into renewable jet fuel. The initiative, involving international scholars and state agencies, aims to develop low-carbon fuels from local biomass to help Oregon meet its decarbonization goals under the Oregon Clean Fuels Program (CFP), providing a model for sustainable aviation fuel pathways linked to state and federal policy frameworks.

Canadian CFR News

• On October 14^th, Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC)’s Low Carbon Fuels Division published a new factsheet on the Clean Fuel Regulations (CFR) entitled Factsheet for Agreements under Section 21 of the Regulations and Checklist for Registered Creators. The purpose of the factsheet is to guide registered creators through the requirements to create compliance credits for activities being undertaken by another party. It also includes a checklist to assist registered creators in completing agreements in accordance with section 21 of the Regulations.

New Mexico CTFP News

• On October 3^rd, the New Mexico Environmental Improvement Board (EIB) wrapped up the initial phase of its public hearing to consider the proposed adoption of the New Mexico Clean Transportation Fuel Program. The hearing will resume on Monday, November 17, 2025. Video recordings of the hearing can be found on the New Mexico Environment Department YouTube channel. Following the completion of these hearings and production of a hearing report and transcripts, the Board will convene to deliberate on the adoption of the proposed regulations. NMED is aiming to have the regulations take effect as early as February 1, 2026. The law requires the EIB to enact regulations to initiate the CTFP no later than July 1, 2026.

Situational Awareness

• On October 8th, POLITICO reported on how the U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE) withdrawal of $1.2 billion in hydrogen funds is shaking California’s plans for a clean hydrogen hub. Despite the federal cuts, California policymakers are exploring using cap-and-trade (Cap-and-Invest) proceeds to keep projects alive.
• On October 9^th, the Carnegie Endowment noted that the U.S. is opposing the International Maritime Organization’s Net-Zero Framework, which would set binding global decarbonization targets for shipping. The Carnegie Endowment connects this to U.S. renewable fuel and hydrogen policy, noting that demand signals from such frameworks could benefit U.S. biofuels and clean hydrogen technologies, which are also incentivized under California’s LCFS and the federal RFS.
• On October 10th, Governor Newsom’s office announced the signing of legislation to enable carbon dioxide pipelines and foster a state carbon management market. This move – crucial for advancing CCUS – builds on California Cap-and-Invest/Cap-and-Trade and is supported by funds from the Greenhouse Gas Reduction Fund, showing integration with broader climate policies in the state.​
• On October 10^th, CARB announced a workshop on potential amendments to the Cap-and-Invest (formerly Cap-and-Trade) Program. At the workshop, CARB staff will provide an overview of recently signed legislation (Assembly Bill 1207 and Senate Bill 840) that provides direction on the Cap-and-Invest Program and discuss related potential updates to the Cap-and-Trade Regulation. The workshop will be held remotely on October 29^th from 9:00 am to 1:00 pm. Interested parties can register here.
• On October 13^th, the Renewable Fuels Association (RFA) called attention to the massive market opportunity for U.S. biofuels in maritime shipping if the IMO adopts its Net-Zero Framework. According to RFA, biofuels that comply with the framework’s carbon intensity targets, such as those benefiting from the RFS and LCFS, could gain significant new demand, driving further agricultural and industrial decarbonization in U.S. states with clean fuel programs.
• On October 14^th, the Washington Department of Ecology invited stakeholders to participate in a Cap-and-Invest workshop focused on electric utility allowance allocations. The workshop aims to refine the state’s allocation system, a core issue for regulated parties under Washington’s Cap-and-Invest program, which is modeled after California’s but tailored for Washington’s energy sector. The workshop will be held virtually on October 30^th from 9:30-11:30 am. Interested parties can register here.
• On October 14^th, E&E News explained that with the DOE’s announcement to cut more than $2 billion in hydrogen hub funding (primarily for green hydrogen), the future of hydrogen decarbonization for the U.S. becomes much less certain. While blue hydrogen (from natural gas with CCUS, potentially LCFS- and Cap-and-Invest-creditable) may move forward in certain regions, green hydrogen’s prospects dim, affecting fuel pathways under California, Oregon, and Washington programs.

Tracking LCF Legislation

• Massachusetts: S2251 targets an 80% CI reduction by 2050. The bill is currently under consideration in the Joint Committee on Telecommunications, Utilities and Energy.
• New Jersey – SB2425 was introduced in January 2024 and referred to the Senate Environment and Energy Committee. The legislation targets a 10% CI reduction below a 2019 baseline by 2030. The bill has seen no action since it was introduced last year. The current session of the New Jersey legislature adjourns on December 31, 2025.
• Pennsylvania – Paul Takac (D-District 82) and Rep. Natalie Mihalek (R-District 40) filed a bipartisan co-sponsorship memo in the state House on September 18, 2025, signaling the “pending introduction” of a bill to establish a Clean Fuel Standard (CFS) in the state. No CFS bill has been introduced in the Pennsylvania state legislature to date.
• All other state legislatures which previously had LCF programs under consideration have adjourned for the year.

[1] Moving averages are widely used technical indicators that smooth out price trends by filtering out “noise” from random short-term price fluctuations, providing a clearer view of the direction prices are trending. They are used by traders and investors for the “technical analysis” of financial data such as stocks or commodities prices or trading volumes to inform decisions of when to buy or sell stocks or commodities. In addition to helping identify trends, moving averages are also used to determine support and resistance levels. In an uptrend, the average may act like a floor (support), so the price recovers with an upward movement. In a downtrend, a moving average may provide resistance with the price pausing before dropping again.