California LCFS Data Dashboard

March 11, 2026

Stillwater tracks the total value stacks – including base fuel value and the added regulatory incentives – for renewable fuels on the U.S. West Coast to identify the most attractive markets as well as trends in supply and demand for these fuels. We calculate comparative value stacks for renewable diesel (RD), biodiesel (BD), and sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) in four West Coast markets: Los Angeles, the Bay Area, Oregon, and Washington. These value stacks identify the cost added to fossil fuel (which renewable fuels avoid) and the incentive value of the various programs received by the renewable fuel.

We use RD, BD, and SAF with a carbon intensity (CI) of 40 g/MJ as an example. Prices shown are averages from March 1 – 8, 2026.

Total RD Value Stack by Region:
Los Angeles = $6.81 (+$1.45 from previous week)
Bay Area = $7.13 (+$1.85)
Oregon = $7.55 (+$1.62)
Washington = $7.21 (+$1.74)

Fossil Fuel Supplier Cost (ex logistics):
Los Angeles = $3.64 (+$0.89)
Bay Area = $3.96 (+$1.29)
Oregon = $3.61 (+$0.99)
Washington = $4.09 (+$1.12)

Total BD Value Stack by Region:
Los Angeles = $6.49 (+$1.39)
Bay Area = $6.81 (+$1.79)
Oregon = $7.21 (+$1.55)
Washington = $6.89 (+$1.67)

Fossil Fuel Supplier Cost (ex logistics):
Los Angeles = $3.59 (+$0.83)
Bay Area = $3.91 (+$1.23)
Oregon = $3.56 (+$0.94)
Washington = $4.08 (+$1.11)

Total SAF Value Stack by Region:
Los Angeles = $6.87 (+$1.65)
Bay Area = $6.96 (+$1.74)
Oregon = $6.51 (+$0.44)
Washington = $5.65 (+$0.46)

Fossil Fuel Supplier Cost (ex logistics):
Los Angeles = $3.68 (+$1.06)
Bay Area = $3.77 (+$1.15)
Oregon = $2.65 (+$0.28)
Washington = $2.62 (+$0.13)

Note: Washington State’s SAF tax incentive, established in 2023 under Senate Bill 5447 can only be claimed after the state verifies that facilities in Washington have a collective production capacity of at least 20 million gallons per year. To date, this condition has not been met, so this incentive is not included in Washington’s value stack at this time.

Importantly, these stacks are theoretical; how well market participants can realize this value depends on additional considerations, including logistics costs, infrastructure constraints, credit liquidity in each market, and extent of participation in the fuel value chain.

What about the future??

While understanding the current value stack for renewable fuels in each market is essential, it’s only part of the picture for effective market strategy. Capturing this value depends on successfully navigating logistical realities, infrastructure limitations, and evolving credit market conditions. Since the supply of RD and SAF cannot instantly shift to the most lucrative markets, suppliers need to anticipate how these value stacks will change – not just react to them as they stand today. By leveraging Stillwater’s credit price outlooks, market participants can plan more strategically, respond to future opportunities, and capture greater margins in a dynamic and competitive environment.

Make smarter market decisions with credit price outlooks through 2040!
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