Today, CARB posted the fourth quarter 2024 data for the LCFS program. In today’s flash report, we offer a quick look at this fourth quarter data; our comprehensive analysis will be published in Stillwater’s Quarterly LCFS Newsletter which will be available to subscribers on Thursday, May 8th.
The fourth quarter data show a net credit of 4,273,523 metric tons (MT), an increase of 226,109 MT (5.6%) from the third quarter net credit of 4,047,414 MT. With the 4Q2024 net credit, the credit bank now stands at a record 37.35 million MT.
The table below summarizes the fourth quarter by fuel and compares it to the previous quarter (3Q2024) and to the same quarter last year (4Q2023).
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A quick look at these data reveals a few trends of interest. The major factors contributing to the increase in net credits in the fourth quarter compared to the third quarter were increases in both volume and net credits for renewable natural gas (RNG), renewable diesel (RD), and on-road electricity. These increases totaled 164,616 MT (6.4% of credits). Ethanol showed an increase from the previous quarter while biodiesel (BD) showed a decrease. In addition, there was a 32,893 MT reduction in quarter-to-quarter deficits and a 5,506 MT decrease in Administratively Adjusted Credits.
On the deficit side, CARBOB volume and deficits increased by 4.5%. For the diesel pool, ULSD deficits and volumes decreased 36%. The total liquid diesel pool volume (ULSD, BD, and RD combined) fell 27% quarter-to-quarter while the portion of the liquid diesel pool made up of BD and RD increased from 70% to 79%.
Compared to the same quarter a year prior (4Q2023), the fourth quarter 2024 data showed a large (44.3%) increase in RNG net credits on a very small (8.2%) increase in volume, a 17.3% increase in RD credits on a 23% increase in volume, and a 25.6% increase in on-road electricity credits on a 28% volume increase. SAF showed a remarkable 387.7% increase in net credits on a 356.4% increase in volume compared to the previous year; given the small volumes in play, however, this growth did not move the needle significantly in overall credit generation. Although the fourth quarter of 2024 saw a 27% decrease in total liquid diesel volume compared to the prior quarter (3Q2024), the fourth quarter total was only down by 0.7% from volumes seen in the fourth quarter of 2023.
We will provide an in-depth analysis of this data in our upcoming quarterly newsletter, to be published on May 8, 2025. Access to Stillwater’s LCFS Newsletter is only available to subscribers. For more detailed information on LCFS data trends and analysis, be sure to subscribe!
What does this quarterly data mean for Credit Prices?
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