On Friday, April 29th, CARB posted the fourth quarter 2021 data for the LCFS program. In today’s flash report, we offer a quick look at the fourth quarter data. Our comprehensive analysis will be published in Stillwater’s Quarterly LCFS Newsletter which will be available to subscribers on Thursday, May 12th.
The fourth quarter data show a net credit of 975,292 metric tons (MT), building on the third quarter net credit of 426,445. Notably, this fourth-quarter net credit is nearly two and a half times larger than the 4Q2020 net credit of 401,935 MT. With the 4Q2021 net credit, the credit bank now stands at 9.45 million MT.
The table below summarizes the quarter and compares it to the prior quarter and same quarter last year.
A quick look at this data shows a few trends of interest. The 975,000 MT net credit for the fourth quarter was higher than anticipated. There were two major factors contributing to the sizeable net credit: Compared to the third quarter, the fourth quarter showed a 10% increase in RD credits on a similar volume increase. This increase was anticipated as additional RD capacity came online. The second factor was a 5.1% reduction in CARBOB deficits and volume, and a 17.5% reduction in petroleum diesel deficits and volume. A portion of these reductions were likely due to the impact of the winter COVID surge of the omicron variant and a portion by displacement of petroleum diesel by RD.
We will provide an in-depth analysis of this data in our upcoming quarterly newsletter, to be published on May 12, 2022.