April 30, 2020
Today, CARB posted the fourth quarter 2019 data for the LCFS program. Although probably not the thing at the front of everyone’s minds given everything else going on in the world, the LCFS program rolls on, and the 4Q2019 report gives us insight into the credit bank situation going into 2020 and forms a basis to assess the disruptions caused by COVID-19. In today’s flash report, we offer a quick look at the fourth-quarter data. Our comprehensive analysis will be published in Stillwater’s Quarterly LCFS Newsletter which is scheduled to be published on May 14th.
The fourth-quarter data shows a striking turnaround with a net credit for the quarter of 160,000 metric tons (MT) – the largest quarterly net credit and only the second positive quarterly net credit since the third quarter of 2017. With this surprising quarterly return, the credit bank closes 2019 at 8.1 million MT.
The table below summarizes the fourth quarter and compares year-to-year and quarter-to-quarter data.
A quick look at this data shows large increases in credits compared to the third quarter for renewable natural gas (RNG), on-road electricity, and off-road electricity, and a very large increase for renewable diesel. An increase in CARBOB deficits was partially offset by lower ULSD deficits. Comparing the total credits and deficits to 4Q2018 shows that increased credit generation more than offset the increase in deficits from the lower 2019 benchmark.
We will provide an in-depth analysis of this data in our upcoming quarterly newsletter, published on May 14, 2020. Access to Stillwater’s LCFS Newsletter is only available to subscribers. For more detailed information on LCFS data trends and analysis, be sure to subscribe! Your first two weeks are free, so subscribe today to receive our Quarterly Analysis in your trial period.