Today, CARB posted the third quarter 2024 data for the LCFS program. In today’s flash report, we offer a quick look at this third quarter data; our comprehensive analysis will be published in Stillwater’s Quarterly LCFS Newsletter which will be available to subscribers on Thursday, February 6th.
The third quarter data show a net credit of 4,038,738 metric tons (MT), an increase of 1,151,284 MT (39.9%) from the second quarter net credit of 2,887,454 MT. With the 3Q2024 net credit, the credit bank now stands at a record 33.06 million MT.
The table below summarizes the third quarter by fuel and compares it to the previous quarter (2Q2024) and to the same quarter last year (3Q2023).
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A quick look at these data reveals a few trends of interest. The major factors contributing to the increase in net credits in the third quarter compared to the second quarter were increases in both volume and net credits for renewable natural gas (RNG), renewable diesel (RD), and on-road electricity. These increases totaled 730,095 MT (30.5% of credits). Ethanol showed a decrease from the previous quarter while biodiesel (BD) showed only slight growth. In addition, there was a 167,407 MT reduction in quarter-to-quarter deficits and a 234,961 MT increase in Administratively Adjusted Credits due to a 230,168 MT deficit that was applied to 2Q2024 in this period.
On the deficit side, CARBOB volume and deficits decreased by 6%. For the diesel pool, ULSD deficits and volumes increased 43%. The total liquid diesel pool volume (ULSD, BD, and RD combined) rose 17% quarter-to-quarter while the portion of the liquid diesel pool made up of BD and RD decreased from 75% to 70%.
Compared to the same quarter a year prior (3Q2023), the third quarter 2024 data showed a 50.2% increase in RNG net credits on a 9.1% increase in volume, a 21.7% increase in RD credits on a 22.6% increase in volume, and a 30.7% increase in on-road electricity credits on a 32.2% volume increase. SAF showed a remarkable 492.1% increase in net credits on a 485.9% increase in volume compared to the previous year; given the small volumes in play, however, this growth did not move the needle significantly in overall credit generation. Although the third quarter of 2024 saw a 17% increase in total liquid diesel volume compared to the prior quarter (2Q2024), the third quarter total was only up by 2.6% from volumes seen in the third quarter of 2023.
We will provide an in-depth analysis of this data in our upcoming quarterly newsletter, to be published on February 6, 2025.
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What does this quarterly data mean for Credit Prices?
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