Flash Report: 3Q2021 LCFS Data Show Nearly 433,000 MT Net Credit

January 31, 2021

On Monday, January 31st, CARB posted the third quarter 2021 data for the LCFS program. The 3Q2021 report gives us insight into the credit bank situation more than a year after COVID-19 stay-at-home orders were put into place in California. In today’s flash report, we offer a quick look at the third quarter data. Our comprehensive analysis will be published in Stillwater’s Quarterly LCFS Newsletter which will be available to subscribers on February 8th.

The third quarter data show a net credit of 432,938 metric tons (MT), building on the second quarter net credit of 180,727, and countering the 1Q2021 net deficit of 260,343 MT. Notably, this third-quarter net credit is much larger than the 3Q2020 net credit of roughly 26,000 MT. With the 3Q2021 net credit, the credit bank now stands at 8.4 million MT.

The table below summarizes the quarter and compares it to the prior quarter and same quarter last year.

A quick look at this data shows a few trends of interest. Compared to the second quarter, this quarter was highlighted by increases in renewable diesel (RD) and renewable natural gas (RNG) credits with a smaller increase in electricity credits. The credit increase in these fuels was partially offset by increases in CARBOB and ULSD deficits and a small decrease in ethanol credits. Of note is the sharp reduction in the average carbon intensity of RNG (i.e. Bio-CNG) to minus 62.70 gCO2e/MJ. Across the board, comparing 3Q2021 to 3Q2020, there are major differences in credits and volumes as 3Q2020 showed significant lingering effects of the early COVID shut-downs.

We will provide an in-depth analysis of this data in our upcoming quarterly newsletter, to be published on February 8, 2022. Access to Stillwater’s LCFS Newsletter is only available to subscribers. For more detailed information on LCFS data trends and analysis, be sure to subscribe! Your first two weeks are free, so subscribe today to receive our Quarterly Analysis in your trial period.