Today, CARB posted the second quarter 2025 data for the LCFS program. In today’s flash report, we offer a quick look at this second quarter data; our comprehensive analysis will be published in Stillwater’s Quarterly LCFS Newsletter which will be available to subscribers on Thursday, November 6th.
The second quarter data show a net credit of 3,173,264 metric tons (MT), an increase of 687,942 MT (27.7%) from the first quarter net credit of 2,485,322 MT. With the 2Q2025 net credit, the credit bank now stands at a record high 43.01 million MT. Note: for the first and second quarters of 2025, the CI-reduction standard was 13.75% as set in the 2018 amendment cycle; the 2024 amendments did not become effective until July 1, 2025, raising the CI-reduction standard to 22.75% for the last half of the year.
The table below summarizes the second quarter by fuel and compares it to the previous quarter (1Q2025) and to the same quarter last year (2Q2024).
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A quick look at these data reveals that credits for almost all credit-generating fuels increased from the last quarter. The major factors contributing to the increase in net credits in the second quarter compared to the first quarter were increases in both volume and net credits for renewable natural gas (RNG), renewable diesel (RD), and project credits. These increases totaled 1,033,560 MT (32.5% of net credits). Biodiesel (BD) and on- and off-road electricity also logged an increase compared to the previous quarter.
On the deficit side, there was an 816,723 MT increase quarter-to-quarter in deficits as CARBOB and ULSD volumes both increased. The total liquid diesel pool volume (ULSD, BD, and RD combined) rose 23.5% quarter-to-quarter while the portion of the liquid diesel pool made up of BD and RD fell to 72%.
Compared to the same quarter a year prior (2Q2024), the second quarter 2025 data showed a 23.8% increase in on-road electricity net credits on 21.7% increase in volume, a 0.6% increase in RD credits on a 0.6% increase in volume, and a 13.1% increase in RNG credits on a 3.5% volume increase. SAF showed a 2.9% increase in net credits on a 0.6% decrease in volume compared to the previous year. Although the second quarter of 2025 saw a 23.5% increase in total liquid diesel volume compared to the prior quarter (1Q2025), the second quarter total was only up by 4% from volumes seen in the second quarter of 2024.
We will provide an in-depth analysis of this data in our upcoming quarterly newsletter, to be published on November 6, 2025. Access to Stillwater’s LCFS Newsletter is only available to subscribers. For more detailed information on LCFS data trends and analysis, be sure to subscribe!
What does this quarterly data mean for Credit Prices?
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