Flash Report: 2Q2021 LCFS Data Show 167,000 MT Net Credit

October 29, 2021

On Friday morning, October 29th, CARB posted the second quarter 2021 data for the LCFS program. The 2Q2021 report gives us insight into the credit bank situation more than a year after COVID-19 stay-at-home orders were put into place in California. In today’s flash report, we offer a quick look at the second quarter data. Our comprehensive analysis will be published in Stillwater’s Quarterly LCFS Newsletter which will be available to subscribers on November 9th.

The second quarter data shows a net credit of 167,359 metric tons (MT), offsetting two thirds of the 1Q2021 net deficit of 255,395 MT. This second-quarter net credit is a sharp reversal from the 2Q2020 net deficit of nearly 230,000 MT. With the 2Q2021 net credit the credit bank now stands at 7.9 million MT.

The table below summarizes the quarter and compares it to the prior quarter and same quarter last year.

A quick look at this data shows a few trends of interest. A number of the smaller-volume fuels (hydrogen, alternative jet fuel, renewable naphtha, and renewable natural gas) showed significant increases in credits and volumes from a year ago and from last quarter (1Q2021). Other fuels that were heavily impacted by the COVID shut-downs (on- and off-road electricity and ethanol) also saw sizable increases vs. the prior quarter and 2Q2020. Renewable Diesel also saw a significant leap in both volume and credit generation. On the flip side of the recovery from COVID is the sizable increases in volumes and deficits, including the incremental crude deficits, generated from CARBOB.

We will provide an in-depth analysis of this data in our upcoming quarterly newsletter, published on November 9, 2021. Access to Stillwater’s LCFS Newsletter is only available to subscribers. For more detailed information on LCFS data trends and analysis, be sure to subscribe! Your first two weeks are free, so subscribe today to receive our Quarterly Analysis in your trial period.