Today, CARB posted the first quarter 2025 data for the LCFS program. In today’s flash report, we offer a quick look at this first quarter data; our comprehensive analysis will be published in Stillwater’s Quarterly LCFS Newsletter which will be available to subscribers on Thursday, August 21st.
The first quarter data show a net credit of 2,870,811 metric tons (MT), a decrease of 1,407,634 MT (32.9%) from the fourth quarter net credit of 4,278,445 MT. With the 1Q2025 net credit, the credit bank now stands at a record high 40.22 million MT. Note: for the first quarter of 2025, the CI-reduction standard was 13.75% as set in the 2018 amendment cycle; the 2024 Amendments did not become effective until July 1, 2025, raising the CI-reduction standard to 22.75% for the last half of the year.
The table below summarizes the first quarter by fuel and compares it to the previous quarter (4Q2024) and to the same quarter last year (1Q2024).
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A quick look at these data reveals that credits for almost all credit-generating fuels fell from the last quarter. The major factors contributing to the decrease in net credits in the first quarter compared to the fourth quarter of last year were decreases in both volume and net credits for renewable natural gas (RNG), renewable diesel (RD), and ethanol. These decreases totaled 1,607,298 MT (56% of credits). Biodiesel (BD) also showed a decrease from the previous quarter while on-road electricity logged an increase.
On the deficit side, there was a 183,575 MT increase quarter-to-quarter in deficits as the CI-reduction standard stepped up from 12.50% to 13.75% on January 1; the impact of this scheduled step increase was almost offset by lower CARBOB and ULSD volumes. The total liquid diesel pool volume (ULSD, BD, and RD combined) fell 21% quarter-to-quarter while the portion of the liquid diesel pool made up of BD and RD remained steady at 79%.
Compared to the same quarter a year prior (1Q2024), the first quarter 2025 data showed a large (33.4%) increase in on-road electricity net credits on an equally large (31.6%) increase in volume, a 2.1% decrease in RD credits on a 2.7% increase in volume, and a 1.7% increase in RNG credits on a 0.5% volume decrease. SAF showed a remarkable 187.5% increase in net credits on a 218.5% increase in volume compared to the previous year; given the small volumes in play, however, this growth did not move the needle significantly in overall credit generation. Although the first quarter of 2025 saw a 21% decrease in total liquid diesel volume compared to the prior quarter (4Q2024), the first quarter total was only down by 8% from volumes seen in the first quarter of 2024.
We will provide an in-depth analysis of this data in our upcoming quarterly newsletter, to be published on August 21, 2025. Access to Stillwater’s LCFS Newsletter is only available to subscribers. For more detailed information on LCFS data trends and analysis, be sure to subscribe!
What does this quarterly data mean for Credit Prices?
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