On July 31, CARB posted the first quarter 2024 data for the LCFS program. In today’s flash report, we offer a quick look at this fourth quarter data; our comprehensive analysis will be published in Stillwater’s Quarterly LCFS Newsletter which will be available to subscribers on Thursday, August 8th.
The first quarter data show a net credit of 2,452,476 metric tons (MT), a decrease of 532,282 MT from the fourth quarter net credit of 2,984,758 MT. With the 1Q2024 net credit, the credit bank now stands at a record 26.07 million MT.
The table below summarizes the first quarter by fuel and compares it to the previous quarter (4Q2023) and to the same quarter last year (1Q2023).
A quick look at these data reveals a few trends of interest. The major factors contributing to the decrease in net credits in the first quarter compared to the fourth quarter were decreases in both volume and net credits for off-road electricity, ethanol, biodiesel (BD) and renewable diesel (RD). These declines totaled 421,354 MT. On-road electricity, renewable natural gas (RNG) and alternative jet fuel (AJF, also known as sustainable aviation fuel or SAF) posted credit increases that partially offset the above decreases in credits.
Despite a 2.9% reduction in volume, CARBOB deficits grew as the benchmark became more stringent with the turn of the year. For the diesel pool, ULSD deficits fell 27.4% as volumes fell 32.3%. The total liquid diesel pool volume (ULSD, BD, and RD combined) fell 15% quarter-to-quarter while the portion of the liquid diesel pool made up of BD and RD rose from 66% to 73%.
Compared to the first quarter of 2023, 1Q2024 data showed a 44.4% increase in RNG net credits on a 3.2% increase in volume, a 25.3% increase in RD credits on a 28.0% increase in volume, and a 33.7% increase in on-road electricity credits on a 35.2% volume increase. SAF showed a remarkable 138.1% increase in net credits on a 127.9% increase in volume year-to-year; given the small volumes in play, however, this growth did not move the needle significantly in overall credit generation. Although the first quarter of 2024 saw a 15% reduction in total liquid diesel volume compared to the prior quarter (4Q2023), the first quarter total was down only 2.9% from volumes seen in the first quarter of 2023.
We will provide an in-depth analysis of this data in our upcoming quarterly newsletter, to be published on August 8, 2024. Access to Stillwater’s LCFS Newsletter is only available to subscribers. For more detailed information on LCFS data trends and analysis, be sure to subscribe.
What does this quarterly data mean for Credit Prices?
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